June 2025 Market Update

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In this 18-minute Money Matters episode, award-winning adviser Chad Larson explains how tariff tensions, a Bank of Canada rate hold, and looming recession risks are pushing MLD Wealth to rotate into fairly-priced international dividend equities while maintaining gold and alternative assets to safeguard client portfolios

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Key Takeaways with Timestamps:

• 00:00:38 - Recaps European business trip and announces his Adviser-of-the-Year award.

• 00:01:38 - Signals he will skip “TMZ-style” Musk–Trump drama and jump into May/June market review.

• 00:02:11- Notes U.S. AI-led tech surge, but tariff-driven volatility, plus mixed Europe and weak China data.

• 00:03:17- Highlights oil holding mid-$60s and gold hovering just under $3,350 as preferred hedge.

• 00:03:47 - Explains Bank of Canada’s 2.75 % rate hold and quotes its cautious stance on U.S. tariff uncertainty.

• 00:05:23- Warns Canada is slipping toward recession—GDP up but 70 k private jobs lost in two months.

• 00:06:33 - Argues unchecked immigration (880 k newcomers YTD vs 8.8 k jobs added) worsens unemployment.

• 00:08:13 - Suggests cutting personal income taxes—rather than rates—would better spur growth and savings.

• 00:09:47 - Forecasts two more Bank of Canada cuts later in 2025 as labour stress builds.

• 00:11:16 -Details strategic shift to international equities for valuation, diversification, and currency tailwinds.

• 00:13:46 -Describes portfolio construction: 15–30 high-quality, dividend-paying non-North-American stocks.

• 00:15:55 - Reiterates “cautiously optimistic” outlook and stresses balanced global diversification.
• 00:16:58- Closes with invitation for client questions and referrals, underlining team’s growth by reputation.

Executive Summary – Key Highlights

• Award & Credibility – Host Chad Larson returns from a European trip and celebrates winning ICM Asset Management’s Adviser of the Year in alternative investments.
• Markets Snapshot – U.S. tech outperforms on AI enthusiasm (Nvidia blow-out earnings) but tariff uncertainty fuels volatility; Europe is mixed, China disappoints, Japan rallies.
• Commodities & FX – Oil steady in the mid-$60s WTI, gold near $3,350/oz as a safe-haven, U.S. dollar firm on risk-off sentiment.
• Bank of Canada Holds – Policy rate kept at 2.75 % on 4 June; core inflation still sticky, tariff impacts unclear.
• Canadian Macro Risks – Private-sector job losses and fast immigration create recession pressures despite headline GDP growth.
• Policy Debate – Larson argues tax cuts would stimulate growth more effectively than further monetary easing.
• Rate Outlook – Expects two 25 bp cuts before year-end 2025, timing to be dictated by labour data and inflation.
• Portfolio Moves – MLD trims expensive U.S. mega-caps, boosts international large-cap dividend equities, maintains gold, private credit and alternatives for diversification.
• Rationale – Cheaper valuations abroad, USD peak, regional diversification, supply-chain realignments, and dividend income buffer volatility.

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