Market Update - 2026 Outlook

I. Executive Overview: A New Investment Landscape with Familiar Foundations

The 30th edition of J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA 2026) offers a disciplined, forward-looking framework for portfolio construction over the next decade and beyond. This report arrives at a pivotal moment of shifting global dynamics where economic nationalism, fiscal activism, and technological acceleration are reshaping capital markets. 

At MLD Wealth Management, these findings reinforce our long-held view that intentional, goals-based, globally balanced investing, anchored by long-term assumptions and resilient diversification remains the cornerstone of successful wealth stewardship. We share J.P. Morgan’s perspective that a balanced global portfolio stands to benefit from these evolving trends, with unique opportunities for skilled active management across both public and private markets. 

“Successful investing isn’t about predicting tomorrow’s headlines. It’s about disciplined decision-making aligned with long-term goals.”

The LTCMA framework continues to serve as a valuable benchmark for our own Wealth Plan and Goals-Based Analyses, allowing us to stress-test portfolios, optimize risk/return trade-offs, and ensure clients remain steadfast through cycles of volatility and uncertainty. 

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II. Thematic Context: “Shifting Landscapes and Silver Linings"

Economic Nationalism and Fiscal Activism 

J.P. Morgan’s outlook captures a world where governments have moved decisively from austerity toward fiscal activism deploying capital to stimulate domestic demand, rebuilding infrastructure, and accelerating technological leadership. 

While protectionism and tighter immigration policies may constrain labor growth, they are simultaneously catalyzing investment in productivity-enhancing technologies such as AI, automation, and renewable infrastructure. 

Key macro highlights from the 2026 LTCMA include: 

• Global growth projected to 2.5% annually, steady from prior years. 
• U.S. GDP growth revised modestly lower to 1.8%, reflecting demographic headwinds. 
• Emerging market growth stable near 3.7%, led by India and Southeast Asia. 
• Developed market inflation projected at ~2.3%, slightly higher due to persistent fiscal and geopolitical pressures. 

MLD’s interpretation: While some see risk in elevated deficits and nationalism, we recognize that fiscal investment can drive innovation and resilience. Public and private spending are converging in ways that favor active capital allocation. This validates our emphasis on infrastructure, innovation, and tangible assets as core long-term growth engines. 

Technology Deployment: From Adoption to Integration 

A central theme across J.P. Morgan’s analysis is the transition from technology adoption to full-scale deployment, especially in artificial intelligence (AI), data infrastructure, and automation. Early productivity benefits are already being realized in the U.S., with broader gains expected globally over the next decade. 

• AI deployment is projected to support resilient profit margins across multiple sectors. 
• Corporate investment (capex) is accelerating, supported by public policy incentives. 
• U.S. equities remain the global epicenter of technological innovation, with expected returns of 6.7% annually, unchanged despite higher valuations. 

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III. Market Outlook and Asset Class Implications 

‍Fixed Income: Bonds Reclaim Relevance 

After a decade of financial repression, bonds have re-emerged as viable return drivers and stabilizers. With cycle-neutral U.S. 10-year yields now projected at 4.1% and total returns around 4.6%, this is the most attractive long-term bond outlook since before the Global Financial Crisis .

Steeper curves and higher term premia reflect both inflation volatility and normalization in monetary policy. 

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Equities: Resilient Profits Amid Valuation Discipline 

Despite a strong 2025 rally and elevated starting valuations, J.P. Morgan expects global equities to deliver ~7% annualized returns over the next 10–15 years, supported by durable margins and reinvestment cycles. Emerging markets, bolstered by currency tailwinds (particularly from the renminbi), show potential for 7.8% USD-based returns. 

Regional equity expectations: 

• U.S. Large Cap: 6.7% 
• Developed ex-U.S.: 7.5% 
• Emerging Markets: 7.8% 

‍MLD positioning: We advocate for balanced global equity exposure with selective regional tilts favoring innovation-led U.S. firms while capturing valuation and currency opportunities internationally. Consistent with our conviction, a globally diversified equity allocation remains central to compounding wealth over time. 

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Alternatives and Private Markets: Unlocking Active Alpha 

The LTCMA underscores that private markets and real assets are positioned to outperform public peers, fueled by fiscal investment, infrastructure spending, and technological transformation. 

Expected 2026 LTCMA returns: 

• Private Equity (USD): 10.2% 
• Direct Lending: 7.7% 
• Core Infrastructure: 6.5% 
• U.S. Core Real Estate: 8.2% 
• Gold: 5.5% 

Private markets now encompass over $2.7 trillion in “dry powder,” signaling both competitive alpha opportunities and increasing dispersion among managers. Hedge funds and diversified strategies are projected to deliver between 4% and 5.5%, reflecting a revival in active alpha generation after a decade of muted returns. 

MLD’s alignment: We believe the expanding spectrum of private and hybrid opportunities including secondary markets, infrastructure credit, and sustainability-linked ventures will be critical for future outperformance. Through disciplined manager selection and ongoing due diligence, MLD Wealth aims to harvest the structural alpha inherent in these evolving markets. 

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IV. Macro Risks and Scenario Planning

J.P. Morgan’s risk matrix (p. 15) highlights potential structural disruptors to long-term growth and asset returns. Among these are fiscal austerity reversals, geopolitical escalation, AI-driven power scarcity, and breakthroughs in health or renewable energy. 

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At MLD, we interpret this through a risk-aware opportunity lens: 

• Fiscal pressures may test government credibility, but they also reinforce the case for tangible assets and inflation hedges. 
• Technological tail risks from cyber disruption to AI adoption missteps underscore the need for diversified, uncorrelated strategies. 
• Energy and longevity breakthroughs could redefine productivity and consumption, creating new investable frontiers across sectors. 

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In essence, volatility becomes an opportunity when guided by discipline, liquidity awareness, and long-term orientation. 

V. Looking Ahead: Investing Beyond the Headlines 

The Next 30 Years: Technology, Policy, and Human Behavior 

The LTCMA’s retrospective analysis “30 Years Back, 30 Years Forward” reminds us that while technology, data, and new market structures reshape investing, the timeless principles remain unchanged: clear goals, disciplined process, and thoughtful diversification. 

AI and blockchain may redefine markets, but human judgment, emotional discipline, and client-centric planning remain irreplaceable. As MLD’s own philosophy states, wealth is built not by prediction, but by perseverance. 

Strategic Implications for MLD Wealth Clients 

Drawing on the LTCMA and our internal modeling, we reaffirm these guiding principles for the decade ahead: 

1. Global Balance & Resilience A diversified global portfolio remains best positioned to benefit from technological innovation, fiscal expansion, and shifting inflation dynamics.

2. Active Management Advantage Greater dispersion across regions, sectors, and managers enhances the scope for skilled active investors to generate alpha. 

3. Integration of Real & Private Assets Real estate, infrastructure, and private credit serve as vital complements to traditional equity and fixed income exposures. 

4. Goal-Based, Adaptive Planning Long-term assumptions serve as a guide, but client goals drive our decisions. We stress-test portfolios continually to align risk, return, and purpose. 

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VI. Conclusion: Planning with Purpose, Investing with Discipline 

The 2026 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions reaffirm that, despite shifting landscapes, the enduring drivers of wealth remain constant: patience, discipline, and adaptability. 

At MLD Wealth Management, we integrate these insights to build portfolios that are globally diversified, resilient to shocks, and intentionally designed around client outcomes. 

“Over decades of market history, the future rarely unfolds exactly as expected. But those who plan thoughtfully, invest consistently, and remain resolute achieve their most important financial goals.” - Chad Larson

As we look ahead, let these long-term assumptions guide our analysis but let your goals and purpose guide your commitment. Together, they form the foundation for enduring, compounding wealth across generations. 

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_{The comments and opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely the work of MLD Wealth, not an official publication of Canaccord Genuity Corp., and may differ from the opinion of Canaccord Genuity Corp’s. Research Department. Accordingly, they should not be considered as representative of Canaccord Genuity Corp’s. beliefs, opinions or recommendations. All information is given as of the date appearing in this newsletter, is for general information only, does not constitute legal or tax advice, and the author MLD Wealth does not assume any obligation to update it or to advise on further developments related. All information included herein has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness is not guaranteed, nor in providing it do the author or Canaccord Genuity Corp. assume any liability.}

_{Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management is a division Of Canaccord Genuity Corp., Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF) and The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO)}

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