Rates repriced the physical AI trade. The companies building it posted record numbers. What happened, what we did, and why we still like it.
Since launch, November 21, 2025. Q3 gave back about 6%.Representative account, IRR, to September 30, 2026
Target changes on October 19. Two trims, two adds.Cash and cash equivalents held at about 15%
TSMC's record Q3 revenue, up 41%. Demand still above supply.TSMC, October 15, 2026
Q3 was the first negative quarter since launch: an oil shock, the first Fed hike since 2023, and a reset in chip valuations.
About 15% of ALPHA AI sits in cash and cash equivalents on purpose.
We built it over the summer when valuations ran ahead of earnings. It is a choice, not what was left over.
If the chip reset deepens or rates force a wider correction, we can buy quality at better prices without selling anything.
Fifteen cents of every dollar is not exposed to the equity drawdown, and with the Fed hiking it earns a real yield while it waits.
When mortgage rates jump, the house does not change. What buyers can pay for it does. That is what happened to AI infrastructure.
Raised on oil-driven inflation. Next decision October 28.
Yields and the U.S. dollar followed. Illustrative path.
Rates, valuations and data centre debt costs. Illustrative shape.
Inside the portfolio: compute and utilities fell, pipelines rose, copper held. The structure was built for exactly this.
A thesis about physical scarcity lives or dies on physical demand. October delivered.
Net income up 69%. Full-year growth raised to about 44%.
Big four cloud capex guided at $720B to $745B for 2026.
Data centre electricity use in 2025 versus total demand growth.
Each dot is 1,000 homes. New campuses are planned in gigawatts, ten times this.
A chip is outdated in three years. A turbine runs for thirty. A transmission line for fifty. Slow to build means valuable to own.
116 gigawatts of turbines ordered or reserved, pricing up more than 20%. Like booking a restaurant that is full for two years.
Washington is lending up to $4.4 billion to restart three shuttered plants. Microsoft and Google are buyers.
With its largest mine at half capacity. A data centre is a copper mine in reverse.
Four target changes on October 19. Take profit where positions grew past target, add where quality was marked down with the group. Nothing new.
Up roughly 180% this year to a record in September. The OpenAI deployment is real, but the stock had priced it. We took gains in our most crowded name.
Sold 40% near $738 in July, bought back near $414. ASML reported record sales and raised its outlook the same week.
Copper was two points over target after a strong run. We trimmed the drift, not the thesis. Grasberg recovery into 2027 is upside we keep.
Naval reactors, government fuel, reactor components. Revenue that does not move with power prices, spot uranium or the Fed.
Grey bar is the weight before the trade, blue or black is after, at the October 19 close. We also closed a small spinoff position received from an existing holding.
AI is a software story sitting on a construction story. Software scales without building much. The physical layer cannot. That is what we own. We call it HALO: Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence.
Reactors, turbines, pipelines, mines. Hard to copy, impossible to download.
A chip is written off in about three years. The plant that feeds it runs for sixty.
Copper does not get a new version. Uranium is not disrupted by a software update.
Scarcity rewards whoever already holds the capacity. We want to be at the front of the line, not in it.
Compute drove the first half. Copper and pipelines carried Q3. Cash kept the drawdown contained.
Lithium and rare earths lagged. Both are small. We are reviewing lithium sizing, not adding into weakness.
Not chasing the chip selloff. Rates do not resolve in a week. We deploy in stages.
We are not chasing what has worked just because it has been strong, and we are not abandoning other areas because leadership has been narrow. Volatility is something you manage, not something you eliminate.
Sizing, the rebalance, or what we are watching into year-end. Happy to compare notes.